Classic Futures

Edited by Lester G. Telser

Introduction - Electronic Trading

Lester G. Telser

Section 1 - Introduction

1 Structures and Methods for Meeting Uncertainty

Frank H. Knight

2 Constructive Speculation

Alfred Marshall

Section 2 - Theory of Storage, Hedging and Futures Markets

3 Speculation and Economic Stability

Nicholas Kaldor

4 Theory of the Inverse Carrying Charge in Futures Markets

Holbrook Working

5 Professor Vaile and the Theory of Inverse Carrying Charges

Holbrook Working

6 Futures Trading and the Storage of Cotton and Wheat

Lester G. Telser

7 Speculation on Hedging Markets

Holbrook Working

8 New Concepts Concerning Futures Markets and Prices

Holbrook Working

9 The Pricing of Commodity Contracts

Fischer Black

Section 3 - The Rationale, Structure and Performance of Futures Markets

10 The Technique of Mediaeval and Modern Produce Markets

Abbott Payson Usher

11 Futures and Actual Markets: How they are Related

Lester G. Telser

12 Origins of the Modern Exchange Clearinghouse: A History of Early Clearing and Settlement Methods at Futures Exchanges

James T. Moser

13 Organised Futures Markets: Costs and Benefits

Lester G. Telser and Harlow N. Higinbotham

14 Futures Markets: Their Purpose, Their History, Their Growth, Their Successes and Failures

Dennis W. Carlton

15 Monopoly, Manipulation and the Regulation of Futures Markets

Frank H. Easterbrook

Section 4 - Effects of Speculation

16 The Suspension of the Berlin Produce Exchange and its Effect upon Corn Prices

R. H. Hooker

17 The State of Long-Term Expectation

John Maynard Keynes

18 Speculation, Profitability and Stability

William J. Baumol

19 A Theory of Speculation Relating Profitability and Stability

Lester G. Telser

20 Profitable Speculation

Michael J. Farrell

21 Price Destabilising Speculation

Oliver D. Hart and David Kreps

Section 5 - Returns to Speculators and the Costs of Hedging

22 Can Speculators Forecast Prices?

H. S. Houthakker

23 Normal Backwardation, Forecasting and the Returns to Commodity Futures Traders

Charles S. Rockwell

24 Futures Trading and Investor Returns: An Investigation of Commodity Market Risk Premiums

Katherine Dusak

25 Luck versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets

Michael L. Hartzmark

Section 6 - New Results on the Random Properties of Futures Prices

26 The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices

Benoit Mandelbrot

27 The Variation of Some Other Speculative Prices

Benoit Mandelbrot