Preface
Acknowledgments
Chapter 1 Introduction to Buy-and-Hold
What is Buy-and-Hold?
Who Should Buy-and-Hold?
My Numbers: Background and Terms
Now What?
Chapter 2 Stock Selection
What Comes After Large Price Moves?
Myth: Stocks that Drop Least in Bear Market then Soar
Stock Selection the Easy Way
Two Tips for Stock Selection
Buy Fallen Angels
What Chart Patterns Appear Before Mergers and Buyouts?
What Are Insiders Doing?
Chapter 3 Book Value
Book Value Defined
Value Assets Properly
Investing Using Book Value
When is Book Value Important?
The Value of Hidden Assets
Limits of Book Value
Buybacks Lower Book Value
Historical Research
Price to Book Value: A Good Measure
Small Caps: Best Choice
Low Stock Price Rules!
Book Value and Return on Equity
What is Best Price to Book Value?
Combinations and Performance
Trading Strategy: Beating the Dow
The 8 Stock Setup
Hold Time for Best Results
Chapter 4 Capital Spending
The Holy Grail? Decreasing Capital Spending
Capital Spending Trends versus Performance
Frequency Distribution
Performance by Market Cap
Chapter 5 Cash Flow
Historical Research Review
Cooking the Books
The Numbers
Is Increasing Cash Flow Good?
Performance by Market Cap
Chapter 6 Dividends
Stock Dividends: An Explanation
Historical Research Review
High Yield, High Performance?
Testing: Yield and Payout Ratio
Which is Best: Dividends or No Dividends?
Surprise: Dividend Cuts Work!
When Disaster Strikes
Performance by Market Cap
Chapter 7 Long Term Debt
The Numbers
Is Debt Good?
Sinking Ship: Taking on Debt
Debt by Market Capitalization
Chapter 8 Price to Earnings Ratio
History Lesson
Do Low P/E Stocks Outperform?
P/E Trends Down: Good or Bad?
Price and Earnings Combinations: Yawn
Buy Small Caps with Low P/E
High P/E. Time to Sell?
Three P/E Tips
Chapter 9 Price to Sales Ratio
Good Benchmark: PSRs Below 1.0
PSR Trend: Down is Best
Small Caps, Small PSRs Rule!
Checklist: PSRs by Industry
Chapter 10 Return on Shareholders’ Equity
Low Roe Stocks Outperform. Why?
ROE Trend Over Time: Yawn
ROE Performance by Market Capitalization
Chapter 11 Shares Outstanding
Performance versus Shares Outstanding
Event Pattern: Dutch Auction Tender Offers
Should You Sell?
Sell at What Price?
Event Pattern: Common Stock Offerings
Performance and Market Capitalization
Chapter 12 Fundamental Analysis Summary
Performance Rank: One-Year Hold
Performance Rank: Three-Year Hold
Performance Rank: Five-Year Hold
Chapter 13 How to Double Your Money
How Long to Double?
What is the Best Buy Price?
Which Market Caps Do Best?
Focus on Fundamentals: Which are Best?
Warning: Losses Ahead. What You Need to Know
Testing the Setup
Chapter 14 Finding 10-Baggers
How Long to 10x?
What is Highest Starting Price?
What Happens the First Year?
Rising Over Time: How Fast?
10-Baggers by Market Cap
Fundamental Ratios Common to 10-Baggers
Industries Most Likely to Make 10-Baggers
The Most Popular Years for 10-Baggers
Surprising Findings about 10-Bagger Losses
Backward Testing
Chapter 15 Trading 10-Baggers
10-Bagger Birth
Life of a 10-Bagger
10-Bagger Death
Chart Patterns in 10-Baggers
Chapter 16 Selling Buy-and-Hold
The Weinstein Setup
Example: The Southwest Airlines Trade
Example: Savient Pharmaceuticals
1-2-3 Trend Change for Down Trends
1-2-3 Trend Change for Up Trends
The Cloudbank Setup
Using Trailing Stops to Sell
Timely Trendline Exits
Can Moving Averages Help?
Follow Insider Transactions
Selling: Two Ratio Tips
Selling Down From a High
Chapter 17 Fundamentals: What I Use
Two Book Value Tips
Do Not Get Singed by Burn Rate
Drop Capital Spending!
Current Ratio 2.0
Prospecting for Growth Using Dividends
Rising Earnings, Net Profit
P/E Ratio versus Industry
Litigation: Stop Pissing People Off!
Avoid Too Much Long Term Debt
Market Capitalization: Big Returns by Going Small
Research Spending
Sales? Think Money
Price to Sales Ratio: What About Debt?
Stock Price: 5 to 20
Volume: Thin Ice Ahead!
Chapter 18 Introduction to Position Trading
What is Position Trading?
Who Should Position Trade and Why?
What Position Trading Will Not Do
Example Position Trade
Chapter 19 Getting Started in Position Trading
Check the News or Lose!
Trend? What Trend?
Trade with the Primary Trend
Take Your Pick: Bottom Fishing or Momentum?
What is Market Influence on Stocks?
What Chart Patterns are best for Position Trades?
Busted Chart Patterns Revisited
Trading Example: Finding Value in Disaster
Chapter 20 Ten Factors Make Chart Patterns Work
What is a Double Bottom?
Ten Factors Revealed
Scoring System Checklist
Scoring Performance
Higher Scores Work Best
Case Study: Stillwater Mining
Case Study: LSB Industries
Case Study: Lumber Liquidators
Chapter 21 Three Winning Trades and a Funeral
The Intel Fiasco
Hudson Highland Hiccup
CNO Financial Group
Complete Production Services
Chapter 22 What Not to Do: Three Botched Trades
Medivation: Selling Too Late
Coldwater Creek: Selling Too Soon
Hovnanian: Selling at the Bottom
Chapter 23 What We Learned
Visual Appendix of Chart Patterns
Bibliography
About the Author
Index
