Preface.
Chapter 1. Avoiding Error: An Introduction.
The Right Goals.
The Right Information (To The Right People At The Right Time).
The Right People.
The Right Process.
The Right Habits.
Chapter 2. Wishful Thinking.
Science.
Cases.
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle And The Cottingly Fairies.
Financial Euphoria.
South Sea Bubble.
Dot.Com Crash: Value America.
Appeasement Of Nazi Germany.
Medical Quackery.
Missing Airport.
Chapter 3. Mythical Thinking.
Science.
Cases.
Failures Of Prophecy: The Myth Of The End Of The World.
Tanks And Horses: The Myth Of The Cavalry.
Business Myths.
Swiss Watch Industry.
Long Term Capital Management.
Chapter 4. Tribal Thinking.
Science.
Cases.
Racial Superiority: White Supremacy.
Racial Superiority: Black Supremacy.
Disdain For The Enemy.
Management Fads: Quality Circles.
Groupthink: The Bay Of Pigs.
Chapter 5. Royal Thinking.
Science.
Cases.
Margaret Peter.
Nick Leeson And Barings Bank.
Challenger Disaster.
Saddam Hussein.
Montgomery Ward.
Project Alpha
References And Further Reading.
Index.